BNET Intercom

Confusion Over "Climate Change Refugees"

Posted in:

BNET
Green Business
Research
economy

By 2050, between 200 million and 1 billion people could see their homelands devastated by floods and droughts due to climate change, says the Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development. And news reports say they are bound to threaten US borders as they seek refuge in the W est, even though the legal status of these "climate exiles" is still up in the air. Ahead of this year's huge Copenhagen summit on climate change, there have been plenty of alarmist headlines in America's major media outlets, many focusing on new reports which outline the chaos that could result from migration due to climate change. However, if you actually go back and read these reports, you'll see the fine print. No one really knows how climate change will affect global migration patterns. A few telling quotes from a few of the reports that are making the rounds:

"The estimates of climate-change-induced migration are highly uncertain and ambiguous." ~ World Bank's "World Development Report 2010"
"Estimates of the numbers of migrants and projections of future numbers are divergent and controversial, ranging from 25 to 50 million by the year 2010 to almost 700 million by 2050." ~ CARE International's "In Search of Shelter"

Here's a lead economist at the World Bank's take on assumptions about mass climate-caused migration:

What concerns me more is that this simplistic viewpoint has very little factual analytical backing. Data on migration trends over time are bad. Data on climate change as they relate to migration are even worse. What is worse, migration experts are not necessarily talking to the experts on climate change.

The relationship between climate change and migration should be studied. However, trying to scare Americans into taking action by suggesting Chinese refugees will soon be pitching tents in their front yards -- that's probably counter-productive.

posted by Stefan Deeran
October 26, 2009 @ 11:33 am

Previous Post: Are America’s Universities Too Big To Fail?
Next Post: New Public Option Could Lead to Ultimate Red State/Blue State Showdown

Last 10 posts:

Hollywood's Napster Moment (11-23)
Why Are Some Nations Rich While Others Are Poor? (11-20)
World Taking Free Ride On America's Healthcare Innovations (11-19)
What the Unemployed Can Learn from Sarah Palin (11-18)
Managing Your Boss | Useful Commute Podcast (11-17)
Big Food's Hunger Myth (11-17)
When Nonprofits Compete with Businesses (11-16)
Chart of the Week: Do Government Programs Encourage Poverty? (11-13)
Do Policymakers Want a Weak Dollar? (11-12)
How the Democrats Sold their Healthcare Bill by Exploiting the Abortion Issue (11-11)