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Hollywood's Napster Moment

November 23rd, 2009 @ 7:51 am

Categories: BNET, economy

Tags: Hollywood, Movie, Napster Inc., Stefan Deeran

That ubiquitous teenybopper vampire flick “New Moon” racked in over $140 million during its opening weekend.  Not a bad take, considering fans also had the unofficial option of streaming the video for free online, according to a report in the Chicago Sun-Times.

The Napster moment has arrived for the television and movie industries.

In the time it once took to download a three minute tune during Napster’s heyday back in 2001, fans can download an entire movie these days.  Last April, a pirated version of “Wolverine II” was downloaded over one million times before the flick even got to the theaters.

But there’s no real need to even bother downloading a song, television program or movie anymore.  Videos can be quickly uploaded anywhere on the planet and streamed on any browser.  And since most data lives in the cloud and not on desktops, the Motion Picture Association of America would be wasting its time going after illegal end-user libraries like the recording industry once did.

Hollywood will face its toughest test with the online networks that host streamable versions of its content.  Predictably, none of these sites claim to ever knowingly host illegal content and they will ultimately cooperate with copyright holders.  But as an article on Forbes notes, sites like Megavideo, which is conveniently registered in Hong Kong, pays its users to upload content. Therefore, whenever Hollywood cites a copyright infringement and illegal content is deleted, there’s still an incentive (and it would be naive to think that most digital pirates care about the money) for some other fan to upload another version of the file. There are now hundreds of illegal copies of every popular television show and movie available on the web for free viewing.

Third-party sites also provide user-generated indexes that help fans find out where specific content can be streamed online.   Even with those helpful directories, all the lawyers in the world couldn’t track and cite every infringement.

How should Hollywood deal with its Napster moment?  Please share your thoughts and bold predictions below.

 
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    1

    ENetArch

    11/24/09 | Report as spam

    Stargate Universe

    Have you seen the series, "Stargate Universe"? Roughly 200 people are trapped on a ship traveling the UNIVERSE at velocities way beyond comprehension. Basically you have to measure them in galaxies. In the first episode they traveled through 15 different galaxies. And every so often the ship stops at a planet or drops into a star to pick up supplies. Cool concept, except for one thing. This article reminded me of it.

    What happens to a human after 10 minutes of NO STIMULATION! Go to a Zen Buddhist Temple and watch all the newbies find out. Which is interesting. Here you have 200 people stuck on a ship with NO STIMULATION and what's interesting is that non of them are feeling the effects of NO STIMULATION.

    What hasn't happened yet, but eventually will, is Stargate Universe will have to show these people either loosing it, or show us how they are remaining stimulated. WHAT ARE THEY WATCHING ON TV? I mean this ship was designed to fiery the ancients around the galaxy and they obviously had the same problems we do. So there has to be tons of data in the system to stimulate the mind. Staring out a window just doesn't cut it after 10 minutes.

    So how does this relate to what Hollywood is facing, simple. As technology increases humans will be able to create new forms of stimulation that don't involve Hollywood. I would guess that within another 10 years, we will have computers that can generate realtime 3D interactive animation that isn't cyclic .. ie, you could watch "Disney's UP" 100 times and see 100 different versions based on different circumstances happening. Maybe even watch it from different character perspectives, camera angles, add or delete specific events. Who knows, but each could / would be different. Now there is the "Never Ending Story" coming to life.

    So what will the studios do with all these has been actors who are being replaced by live 3D characters that are far more interesting, closer to our perceived standards of norm, the same thing they do every day. Try to take over the world through this new format. They will build their own complex 3D interactive animation programs that demonstrate the technology, use the has been actors, and require 30 networked supercomputers to view. (Or was I thinking World of War Craft III.) In either case, they will then have a monopoly on STIMULATION.

    It's time that we stopped squabbling over peanuts and started focusing on developing new entertainment methods. Honestly, who likes watching the same basketball, hockey, football, soccer, tennis, horse race over and over and over again? No, we want something different. We want something that stimulates our brain.

  •  
    2

    glennyb@...

    11/24/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Hollywood's Napster Moment

    I agree, and I am aware that also means new technologies
    are on the way. As the 'freemium' model makes its way to
    the forefront, we will see new ways (built on transparency &
    trust) emerge to make money.

    Professor Daddy-O
    get ya digital on.
    www.studioplexstudios.com
    http://professordaddyo.mp/about_me (BIO)
    http://card.ly/professordaddyo (Contacts)
    http://bit.ly/396H0r (RSS Feed)

  •  
    3

    ENetArch

    12/03/09 | Report as spam

    Recent Updates on Technology

    Intel today released a 48 core CPU that only requires the 140 watts of power ( 2 70 watt light incandescent bulbs).
    (http://www.networkworld.com/news/2009/120209-intel-unveils-energy-efficient-48-core.html?source=NWWNLE_nlt_daily_am_2009-12-03)

    And Apparently it is becoming standard practice to use the Graphics Process Unit on Video Adapters to offset computing power needs for some applications. (http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=6289&tag=nl.e539)

    The 2nd article hints at the merger of the GPU and CPU on one chip. This concept happened when the 8086 merged with the floating point processor and became known as the 80286 processor.

    Now imagine what 48 GPU's or specialized processor arrays could do. As noted in my previous blog, GPU's are needed to render computer graphics, so the next step in movie making is interactive movies. This technology could make it happen.

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  • Blogger Thumbnail Stefan Deeran Stefan Deeran helps environmental nonprofits and green businesses develop and execute their new media campaigns. He also publishes The Exception magazine, a nonpartisan news platform serving his home state of Maine. You can follow him on Twitter @RStefanDeeran or via Facebook. more »

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