Cuil, the latest contender for the search throne currently occupied by Google, is likely to fail, if history is our guide. Entrenched incumbents commanding world-class talent and money are very difficult to dislodge.
And yet, some experts tell us there is a growing disenchantment with the Big G; that just by the nature of its dominance in the market Google is ripe for the picking.
Here are two theories about Cuil’s future:
- No Chance Writing on Harvard Business Publishing, innovation expert Scott Anthony says Cuil is playing a fool’s game by trying to be a better Google, rather than introducing game-changing innovation. “If Cuil’s search technology does indeed work better than Google’s,” Anthony writes, “you can be sure that Google will be fiercely motivated to fight back. With all the engineering talent at its disposal, it is hard to believe Google won’t win that battle.”
- Some Chance Over at Information Week, search engine expert Stephen Arnold tells W. David Gardner that Cuil can start getting momentum once it shakes out the bugs. Says Arnold: “My hypothesis is that the folks who flock to Cuil will be Google users, but the real impact of Cuil may well be taking orphaned or disaffected users from Ask.com, Live.com, and Yahoo.com search.”
Searching for Profit
I’m leaning toward the “Some Chance” camp. Even in its early iteration Cuil (pronounced cool) is notable for rethinking how search results are displayed. Adding images and related information in easy-to-digest columns will help users decide whether to click through. Cuil also claims it scours more of the Web than its big rival and offers more privacy protection against advertisers.
In its early days, users have complained that Cuil’s search results are all over the map. But as Google has shown, getting search right is a continuous improvement process that many of Cuil’s engineers, several of whom come from Google, know how to master.
But here is the real nut for Cuil to crack. It quickly has to turn its $30 million of venture funding into cash flow and, presumably, profit, while all the while fighting the biggest technology force on the planet. Maybe Cuil’s ultimate innovation will be its business model, out Googling Goole at turning search results into ads. But so far, there are no ads on Cuil’s pages. The clock has started ticking.
What do you think of Cuil? Is it an improvement over the Googlians? Should other search engines be losing sleep?
(Cuil image by e-strategyblog.com, CC 2.0)
